BLACK MAGIC: Real Madrid has a unique ability to always know how to win in impossible situations in the Champions League, even when the statistics are against them

The famous phrase “90 minutes at the Bernabeu is very long” is spoken by Madrid supporters.

That was translated into Italian by Real Madrid striker Juanito as a warning to Serie A rival Inter following a 0–2 loss in the first leg of the 1984–85 UEFA Cup at San Siro.

Juanito fulfilled his word. Before taking home the trophy in the subsequent final, Madrid easily defeated the other team 3-0 in the second leg.

Real Madrid England 1Real Madrid’s DNA

Spanish media made the claim that “Real Madrid never dies in the Champions League” one week ago.

That is regarded by many as being overly drаmаtic. That phrase was oddly accurate, though, when Polish referee Szymon Marciniak’s final whistle blew during the second leg at the Bernabeu.

The white shirt squad needed to find a way to catch up as the game was coming down to a close. After gaining the equalizer, they surged ahead.

Real Madrid England 3Fans of European football are accustomed to seeing Real Madrid consistently figҺt back from down against PSG, Chelsea, and Man City in 2022.

On May 9, 2024, at daybreak, same scene materialized once more. This time, Bayern Munich was the team that met the same end as Manchester City. They led and held the lead until the 88th minute, but “Los Blancos” prevailed 4-3 to book their place in the Champions League final.

Reasonable analysis can occasionally be proven to be incorrect, particularly when considering Real Madrid’s record in this competition.

Since the 2010–11 season, Opta has collected data on expected goals (xG) in the UEFA Champions League.

Based on statistical data, Real has “lost” 25 times in knockout matches when it comes to xG. It is important to remember, though, that “Los Blancos” only lost nine of those games. The remaining royal team from Spain won ten games and drew six.

Put another way, Real Madrid has a higher historical probability of winning a game that, based on computer analysis, they “should” lose.

In games where the opposition creates more scoring opportunities than Real, Real only has a 36% defeat percentage. This is the best-recording team in Europe under head coach Carlo Ancelotti.

Phi reasoning

When discussing Real, we must acknowledge their incredible fortitude in watching a game under extreme strain and then depending on their superstars to provide magical moments.

Real Madrid England 4There are numerous instances of that. In each of Real’s previous five Champions League victories, there were instances where one or more players “rescued” the squad.

In order to force extra time in the 2013–14 season, Real Madrid needed Sergio Ramos’ ιnjury-time equalizer against Atlético Madrid. It was then Gareth Bale’s chance to lead Real Madrid to victory in extra time with a fantastic display.

2016 saw the “White Vultures” triumph over Atlético once more, but this time thanks to penalties. Despite the fact that Ramos was offside, Ramos was the hero of the day.

Three outrageous goals in only seven minutes of extra time during the tҺrilling return leg against Bayern Munich in 2017—including a hat-trιck from Cristiano Ronaldo—made the outcome even more evident.

In 2018, Ronaldo defeated Juventus in the quarterfinals thanks to a contentious penalty kιck in the 98th minute. Gianluigi Buffon was sent off the field because he was so incensed at the penalty.

The season for 2021–2022 is already known. Real had to effectively chase and escape in all three of their matches against PSG, Chelsea, and Man City.

Thibaut Courtois had the best career performance going into the Champions League final, recording nine saves.

It’s challenging to quantify football’s mentаl component using stats. Real Madrid, however, has outperformed all other teams in the knockout stages, converting 56% of their chances. This is from the 2010–11 season.

Put another way, the white team’s stars almost never miss chances at crucial times. Nevertheless, exceptional defense skills are sometimes a weakness, not just in offense. components that Madrid excels at above all others.

Real Madrid has played the best defense of any club in Champions League history in as many games going into the knockout stages. Madrid surrendered fewer goals than computer statistics predicted in 38 different elimination round matches.

One of the great footballers, Gary Lineker, famously said, “Football is a game of 22 players with 1 ball, but the final result is only one: the Germans are the winning team.”

Real Madrid England 2Oliver Hopkins, an Opta writer, changed the word “German” to “Real Madrid” prior to the semifinal matchup with Bayern.

Following the game, head coach Thomas Tuchel apologetically said that it would likely take another century before goalie Manuel Neuer committed the identical error that resulted in Joselu’s equalizer: failing to catch the ball.

Thierry Henry, however, had little surprise when Real returned, saying, “This is what they do. There’s absolutely no luck involved. It is known as Real Madrid. Exactly.”

In football, it’s never simple to go upstream. Everything becomes even more challenging when you think of the scenario as a second leg match in the Champions League knockout round with just over five minutes remaining in official play.

Real Madrid, though, does it so frequently that even a legend like Thierry Henry is unsurprised. “Los Blancos” has the ability to transform an opponent’s apparent advantage into an unseen fixation.